Educational Attainment and Mortality in the United States: Effects of Degrees, Years of Schooling, and Certification

Researchers have extensively documented a strong and consistent education gradient for mortality, with more highly educated individuals living longer than those with less education. This study contributes to our understanding of the education-mortality relationship by determining the effects of years of education and degree attainment on mortality, and by including nondegree certification, an important but understudied dimension of educational attainment. We use data from the mortality-linked restricted-use files of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) sample (N=9,821) and Cox proportional hazards models to estimate mortality risk among U.S. adults. Results indicate that more advanced degrees and additional years of education are associated with reduced mortality risk in separate models, but when included simultaneously, only degrees remain influential. Among individuals who have earned a high school diploma only, additional years of schooling (beyond 12) and vocational school certification (or similar accreditation) are both independently associated with reduced risks of death. Degrees appear to be most important for increasing longevity; the findings also suggest that any educational experience can be beneficial. Future research in health and mortality should consider including educational measures beyond a single variable for educational attainment

Alcohol's Collateral Damage: Childhood Exposure to Problem Drinkers and Subsequent Adult Mortality Risk

The importance of childhood circumstances, broadly defined, for shaping adult health and longevity is well-established. But the significance of one of the most prevalent childhood adversities—exposure to problem drinkers—has been understudied from a sociological perspective and remains poorly understood. We address this gap by drawing on cumulative inequality theory, using data from the 1988–2011 National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, and estimating Cox proportional hazards models to examine the relationship between exposure to problem drinkers in childhood and adult mortality risk. Childhood exposure to problem drinkers is common (nearly 1 in 5 individuals were exposed) and elevates adult overall and cause-specific mortality risk. Compared to individuals who had not lived with a problem drinker during childhood, those who had done so suffered 17 percent higher risk of death (p<.001) over the follow-up period, net of age, sex, and race/ethnicity. We find compelling evidence that the duration, source, and intensity of exposure to problem drinkers in childhood contributes to inequality in adult mortality risk. Favorable socioeconomic status in adulthood does not ameliorate the consequences of childhood exposure to problem drinkers. The primary intervening mechanisms are risky behaviors, including adult drinking and smoking. The findings—which reveal that the influence of problem drinking is far-reaching and long-term—should inform policies to improve childhood circumstances, reduce detrimental effects of problem drinking, and increase life expectancy

The Persistent Southern Disadvantage in Us Early Life Mortality, 1965‒2014

Background: Recent studies of US adult mortality demonstrate a growing disadvantage among southern states. Few studies have examined long-term trends and geographic patterns in US early life (ages 1 to 24) mortality, ages at which key risk factors and causes of death are quite different than among adults. Objective: This article examines trends and variations in early life mortality rates across US states and census divisions. We assess whether those variations have changed over a 50-year time period and which causes of death contribute to contemporary geographic disparities. Methods: We calculate all-cause and cause-specific death rates using death certificate data from the Multiple Cause of Death files, combining public-use files from 1965‒2004 and restricted data with state geographic identifiers from 2005‒2014. State population (denominator) data come from US decennial censuses or intercensal estimates. Results: Results demonstrate a persistent mortality disadvantage for young people (ages 1 to 24) living in southern states over the last 50 years, particularly those located in the East South Central and West South Central divisions. Motor vehicle accidents and homicide by firearm account for most of the contemporary southern disadvantage in US early life mortality. Contribution: Our results illustrate that US children and youth living in the southern United States have long suffered from higher levels of mortality than children and youth living in other parts of the country. Our findings also suggest the contemporary southern disadvantage in US early life mortality could potentially be reduced with state-level policies designed to prevent deaths involving motor vehicles and firearms

Racial/Ethnic Differences in Early-Life Mortality in the United States

U.S. early life (ages 1–24) deaths are tragic, far too common, and largely preventable. Yet demographers have focused scant attention on U.S. early life mortality patterns, particularly as they vary across racial and ethnic groups. We employ the restricted-use 1999–2011 National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files and hazard models to examine racial/ethnic differences in early life mortality. Our results reveal that these disparities are large, strongly related to differences in parental socioeconomic status, and expressed through different causes of death. Compared to non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks experience 60%, and Mexican Americans 32% higher risk of death over the follow-up period, with demographic controls. Our finding that Mexican Americans experience higher early life mortality risk than non-Hispanic whites differs from much of the literature on adult mortality. We also show that these racial/ethnic differences attenuate with controls for family structure and especially with measures of socioeconomic status. For example, higher mortality risk among Mexican-Americans relative to non-Hispanic whites is no longer significant once we control for mother’s education or family income. Our results strongly suggest that eliminating socioeconomic gaps across groups is the key to enhanced survival for children and adolescents in racial/ethnic minority groups

Exoplanet atmosphere evolution: emulation with random forests

Atmospheric mass-loss is known to play a leading role in sculpting the demographics of small, close-in exoplanets. Understanding the impact of such mass-loss driven evolution requires modelling large populations of planets to compare with the observed exoplanet distributions. As the quality of planet observations increases, so should the accuracy of the models used to understand them. However, to date, only simple semi-analytic models have been used in such comparisons since modelling populations of planets with high accuracy demands a high computational cost. To address this, we turn to machine learning. We implement random forests trained on atmospheric evolution models, including XUV photoevaporation, to predict a given planet's final radius and atmospheric mass. This evolution emulator is found to have an RMS fractional radius error of 1$\%$ from the original models and is $\sim 400$ times faster to evaluate. As a test case, we use the emulator to infer the initial properties of Kepler-36b and c, confirming that their architecture is consistent with atmospheric mass loss. Our new approach opens the door to highly sophisticated models of atmospheric evolution being used in demographic analysis, which will yield further insight into planet formation and evolution.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to MNRAS letter

Reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the UK: A behavioural science approach to identifying options for increasing adherence to social distancing and shielding vulnerable people.

PURPOSE: To describe and discuss a systematic method for producing a very rapid response (3 days) to a UK government policy question in the context of reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: A group of behavioural and social scientists advising the UK government on COVID-19 contributed to the analysis and writing of advice through the Government Office for Science. The question was as follows: What are the options for increasing adherence to social distancing (staying at home except for essential journeys and work) and shielding vulnerable people (keeping them at home and away from others)? This was prior to social distancing legislation being implemented. The first two authors produced a draft, based on analysis of the current government guidance and the application of the Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) framework to identify and evaluate the options. RESULTS: For promoting social distancing, 10 options were identified for improving adherence. They covered improvements in ways of achieving the BCW intervention types of education, persuasion, incentivization, and coercion. For promoting shielding of vulnerable people, four options were identified covering the BCW intervention types of incentivization, coercion, and enablement. CONCLUSIONS: Responding to policymakers very rapidly as has been necessary during the COVID-19 pandemic can be facilitated by using a framework to structure the thinking and reporting of multidisciplinary academics and policymakers

Exponential martingales and changes of measure for counting processes

We give sufficient criteria for the Dol\'eans-Dade exponential of a stochastic integral with respect to a counting process local martingale to be a true martingale. The criteria are adapted particularly to the case of counting processes and are sufficiently weak to be useful and verifiable, as we illustrate by several examples. In particular, the criteria allow for the construction of for example nonexplosive Hawkes processes as well as counting processes with stochastic intensities depending on diffusion processes

The UK myotonic dystrophy patient registry: facilitating and accelerating clinical research

Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is the most frequent muscular dystrophy worldwide with complex, multi-systemic, and progressively worsening symptoms. There is currently no treatment for this inherited disorder and research can be challenging due to the rarity and variability of the disease. The UK Myotonic Dystrophy Patient Registry is a patient self-enrolling online database collecting clinical and genetic information. For this cross-sectional “snapshot” analysis, 556 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of DM1 registered between May 2012 and July 2016 were included. An almost even distribution was seen between genders and a broad range of ages was present from 8 months to 78 years, with the largest proportion between 30 and 59 years. The two most frequent symptoms were fatigue and myotonia, reported by 79 and 78% of patients, respectively. The severity of myotonia correlated with the severity of fatigue as well as mobility impairment, and dysphagia occurred mostly in patients also reporting myotonia. Men reported significantly more frequent severe myotonia, whereas severe fatigue was more frequently reported by women. Cardiac abnormalities were diagnosed in 48% of patients and more than one-third of them needed a cardiac implant. Fifteen percent of patients used a non-invasive ventilation and cataracts were removed in 26% of patients, 65% of which before the age of 50 years. The registry’s primary aim was to facilitate and accelerate clinical research. However, these data also allow us to formulate questions for hypothesis-driven research that may lead to improvements in care and treatment

Happiness and longevity in the United States

This is the first study to our knowledge to examine the relationship between happiness and longevity among a nationally representative sample of adults. We use the recently-released General Social Survey-National Death Index dataset and Cox proportional hazards models to reveal that overall happiness is related to longer lives among U.S. adults. Indeed, compared to very happy people, the risk of death over the follow-up period is 6% (95% CI 1.01 – 1.11) higher among individuals who are pretty happy and 14% (95% CI 1.06 – 1.22) higher among those who are not happy, net of marital status, socioeconomic status, census division, and religious attendance. This study provides support for happiness as a stand-alone indicator of well-being that should be used more widely in social science and health research

Analysis of an Energetic Electron Injection at GEO Using FalconSEED: A Low SWaP-C, CubeSat-Compatible Instrument for Space Environments

We present a detailed analysis of an energetic electron injection (10s - 100s keV) observed at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) on March 5, 2022 in order to highlight the capabilities of the Falcon Solid-state Energetic Electron Detector (SEED). The high time- and energy-resolution of SEED are used to quantify the dispersion of the injection front and to explore the morphology of the energy distribution throughout the injection encounter. Observations of the same event from nearby platforms are included for context. The SEED is a CubeSat compatible, single element particle telescope, designed to measure 14 to 145keV electrons in GEO. The flight payload has a volume of 10 cm x 10 cm x 20 cm, in a 4.3-kg, 3.4-W package. The SEED was manifested on the Department of Defense (DoD) Space Test Program Satellite—6 (STPSat-6) which was launched in December of 2021 to GEO at 112 W longitude. During the first year of mission operations, the SEED has demonstrated the ability, evidenced in this paper, or a low-resource particle detector comprised of predominantly commercial-off-the-shelf components to provide relevant science observations of the space plasma environment